论文代写：自行车数量与温湿度的关系

02/05/2018

The model shows that for a unit increase in the standardized feeling temperature, the number of bikes will increase 5.35 times. However, this number needs to be interpreted carefully. The range of feeling temperature in the data is from 4oC to 45oC. Furthermore, a unit increase in atemp implies a 50oC increase in feeling temperature. While for one thing, such a stark increase in feeling temperature is highly unlikely, extreme temperatures both very high and very low will deter the number of bikes on road. Thus, if the feeling temperature was to increase by 1oC, the effective change in atemp will be 0.02 and the corresponding expected change in the number of bikes will increase by a fraction of 5.350.02 which is equal to 1.03. Thus, for a unit increase in feeling temperature, a 3% increase in number bikes can be expected, ceteris paribus.

The other variables need to be interpreted similarly. For a unit increase in humidity, the effective increase in normalized humidity is 0.01 which translates into a decline of number of bikes to 0.99 of the initial number, and all things held constant. In other words for a unit increase in humidity levels, the expected decline in the number of bikes on road is 0.67%. A unit increase in the wind speed is equivalent to 0.015 decrease in the magnitude of normalized wind speed. Correspondingly, the effective number of bikes is 0.985times the initial number, ceteris paribus. Thus, the expected percentage decline in the number of commercial bikes due to a unit increase in the wind speed is 1.5%.